Ted Cruz Campaign Update as Forecaster Shifts Race Toward Democrats

Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz’s 2024 election campaign was downgraded from likely Republican to lean Republican on Tuesday by the Cook Political Report.
Texans have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, although Cruz’s opponent, Democratic candidate Representative Colin Allred, appears to be a worthy challenger. As Cook Political Report noted on Tuesday, Allred outraised Cruz in the second quarter of this year by just shy of $3 million. Recent polling has also been less unfavorable to Cruz. In a survey released Sunday by Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America, the senator led Allred by just 1 percentage point (47 percent to 46 percent), within the survey’s margin of error of 3.5 percent. In the same poll back in August, Cruz held a two-point lead.
“We still think this race remains tough for Allred, and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a herculean task,” read the Cook Political Report. “Republicans say they are now beginning to drive up Allred’s negatives as well as more money pours in, and an Oct. 15 debate will also be crucial.”
“But the contest is closer than once thought, which the spending bears out, and Allred is raising plenty of money to keep the race competitive,” the report added. “As such, it moves to Lean Republican.”
Newsweek has reached out to Cruz’s campaign via email Tuesday evening for comment.
As Cook Political Report pointed out, Cruz was nearly upset in his 2018 reelection bid by then-Democratic Representative Beto O’Rourke, who lost by just 2.4 percentage points while running a grassroots-first campaign.
Since then, Democrats have been given new firing power against Cruz on the issue of abortion. Texas currently has one of the most restrictive abortion laws following the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Cruz previously celebrated the overturn of Roe as a “massive victory” and has pushed anti-abortion legislation, including bills that would defund Planned Parenthood. Meanwhile, Allred has called Texas’ abortion restrictions “extreme” and opposed the fall of Roe.
Polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Austin has shown that the majority of Texans support expanding legal access to abortion. Currently, Texas laws restrict abortions except if the life of the mother is at risk.
Another key issue for voters in Texas is the topic of immigration, and most Americans have indicated they trust Republicans over Democrats to address their concerns on the issue. But as Cook Political Report noted, Allred has attempted to get ahead of Cruz on the issue, including running advertisements that attack the senator for striking down the bipartisan border bill that failed to pass the higher chamber of Congress earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Cruz’s campaign has amplified an advertisement that features the mother of 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, who was murdered by two men who entered the United States illegally over the summer. In the video ad, Nungaray’s mother blames Allred and the Biden administration for her daughter’s death.
Allred told KRIV in Houston last month that he takes “offense at what Ted Cruz is doing” in the ad, “which is using a tragedy for his political gain when he has been a part of stopping us from solving this problem and I can’t stress this enough.”